Posts tagged Recession

ADP Employment Report: They’re Hiring Again!


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Who would have thought that a loss of 22,000 jobs last month was good news.  The good news is that it is the smallest job loss in two years and midsized companies had a net increase of 9,000 jobs.  Are we on the road to recovery? Too soon to tell, but this is a step in the right direction.

ADP employment report: Midsize firms start hiring again

After leading the charge in laying off workers during most of the recession, they added a net 9,000 workers last month, the ADP National Employment Report said Wednesday. That’s the first employment growth among companies with 50 to 499 workers in two years.

Overall, the economy still lost 22,000 jobs between December and January, according to the ADP report. But that was the smallest decline since February 2008.

“Growth of overall private employment is on the verge of turning positive,”Joel Prakken, chairman of Macroeconomic Advisers, said in a release. The company puts out the monthly report, based on private payroll data, in partnership with Automatic Data Processing. On Friday, the US Labor Department will release the official unemployment figures for January.

Midsized businesses still have a long way to go. They have lost nearly 3.2 million since the recession began, according to ADP. Nationally, these firms employ more than 42 million Americans, far more than large companies (17.8 million) and nearly as many as small businesses (48 million).    –more

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Leading Economic Indicators

Follow The Leader: Index of Leading Economic Indicators November 2009

Today’s results of the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicators showed another monthly increase climbing .9% compared to October bringing the annual increase to 5.96% and leaving the index at a level of 104.9.

On the face of it this is clearly a Bullish “Green Shoots” development as this series (an aggregate of 10 component leading indices) is signaling a clear shift from leading contraction to expansion though the leading index is strongly influenced by stocks (i.e. the inclusion of the S&P 500 as one of the leading indicators) and the pronounced “V”-shaped bounce coming directly on the back of such a dramatic period of decline appears suspicious.    –more


The stock market crash of 2008 was predictable. Investors lost trillions. Few financial planners warned you. But certain highly skilled analysts saw it coming. Traders capitalizing on short sales literally changed the rules at the NYSE. The Dow has been rallying, investors are elated and recovery seems to be on track. However, there is compelling reason to worry.

The Stimulus package needs another Stimulus and the recession is no where near over. Unemployment is predicted to exceed 10% and that could be conservative. Banks are continuing to fail. I am not an economist. But as a trader of the S&P 500 futures, our software shows us a frightening truth.

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