Follow The Leader: Index of Leading Economic Indicators November 2009

Today’s results of the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicators showed another monthly increase climbing .9% compared to October bringing the annual increase to 5.96% and leaving the index at a level of 104.9.

On the face of it this is clearly a Bullish “Green Shoots” development as this series (an aggregate of 10 component leading indices) is signaling a clear shift from leading contraction to expansion though the leading index is strongly influenced by stocks (i.e. the inclusion of the S&P 500 as one of the leading indicators) and the pronounced “V”-shaped bounce coming directly on the back of such a dramatic period of decline appears suspicious.    –more

The stock market crash of 2008 was predictable. Investors lost trillions. Few financial planners warned you. But certain highly skilled analysts saw it coming. Traders capitalizing on short sales literally changed the rules at the NYSE. The Dow has been rallying, investors are elated and recovery seems to be on track. However, there is compelling reason to worry.

The Stimulus package needs another Stimulus and the recession is no where near over. Unemployment is predicted to exceed 10% and that could be conservative. Banks are continuing to fail. I am not an economist. But as a trader of the S&P 500 futures, our software shows us a frightening truth.

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